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Humans may have known how to gain individual tactical victories however, as long as the UNSC maintained a solely defensive strategy against a larger more advanced enemy that crucially could maintain the war indefinitely from an economical perspective, the UNSC’s defeat was never a question of if, but when.
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We likely will never know the Covenant leadership’s full intention for initiating the war however in my opinion between 2525-2553 they conducted an extremely thorough and decisive campaign which by 2552 had humanity on its knees. Humanity on the other hand would lose access to more and more of their manufacturing capability and access to raw materials with each colony glassed as the Covenant pushed them back year after war, all the way until they reached Earth which as we all know is exactly what happened.
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The Covenant were always free to replace ships and troops lost in battle and return with greater force when human numbers proved too much for their technological superiority to overcome. These individual triumphs however were rendered practically worthless as long as the UNSC remained on the defensive strategically. Throughout the course of the war the UNSC’s willingness to accept overwhelming losses rather than their unconventional tactics led to a significant number of important yet costly victories. In final conclusion, I would say that while humanity maintained a partial and at times hair thin tactical advantage over the Covenant from a tactical perspective, from a strategic perspective the UNSC’s unwillingness to take the offensive into Covenant territory led directly to their practical defeat during the Battle of Earth. The only thing we can say with any certainly is that whatever the Covenant strategic plan was to win the war, the virtual annihilation of the Earth Home Fleet and temporary occupation of Earth in 2552 would suggest that their plans were successful. A long drawn out conflict could therefore have been what the Covenant (or a shadow faction of their government) wanted all along, and unfortunately we can only speculate as to their reasoning. A closer perspective would suggest that more ulterior motives were the central driving force for the war, as Admiral Preston Cole in his biography had theorized that an unknown faction within the Covenant hierarchy were preventing the Covenant from pin-pointing Earth location and thus prolonging the war. A cursory glance at the Halo back-story would suggest that the Covenant Hierarchs wished nothing less than humanity’s complete eradication, which by 2552 they seemed to be on the verge of achieving. In comparison to the UNSC’s strategic initiative, the Covenant’s general strategy for winning the war seems unclear. Clearly they were not prepared to allow the Turian Hierarchy the freedom to dictate the course of the war, unlike the UNSC whose only tangible plan seemed to rely on waiting for the Covenant carve a path through their colonies to Earth.
As events would later transpire the war was ended through diplomatic means before either side could mobilize their forces for full scale war, yet in the space of a handful of months the Earth Alliance had set the ground work for a offensive campaign into their enemies territory. Unlike the UNSC however, the Earth Alliance dispatched dozens if not hundreds nuclear armed probes into Turian space in an attempt to map out the Turian’s territory, seemingly in preparation for a counter attack. The Earth Alliance of the Mass Effect universe like the UNSC faced an unexpected and unplanned war against an unknown and potentially vastly superior enemy in the form of the Turian Hierarchy during the events of the First Contact War. To quote the subject matter of another universe, the situation the UNSC found itself in the late twenty’s of the 26th century was not unique to this genre. Humanity was outgunned technologically, at times outnumbered and had absolutely no compression of why they were being invaded and who they were fighting however, one thing humanity had in abundance was time, 28 years to be precise.
A small isolated power with no knowledge of the galaxy outside its own borders suddenly set upon by a larger technologically advanced alien power. I am aware that the odds stacked against the UNSC from the beginning of the war were astronomical.
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